All eyes in Queensland will be on bat versus ball, or perhaps just ball, at 10.20 a.m. on Saturday.

The fast bowlers are expected to set the tone for this series, which is a stark contrast to all of the Bazballing our Test-cricket-loving eyes have seen. There are 12 players on each team, and their combined skill set includes the ability to suffocate run scoring with strangling lines and lengths as well as speed, swing, and slower ball variations. The Australian and South African offenses are roughly equal, so the performance of the batters is the most likely factor in deciding whether the series will be won or lost.

Australia are in excellent shape: They have scored over 300 nine times in 17 innings this year and have not been bowled out in their last four Test innings, all of which were against West Indies. Even though David Warner’s slump is cause for concern, there are enough other big names scoring big runs for it not to matter too much. South Africa can merely fantasize about something similar. In their final four Test innings, they were bowled out for less than 200, and they only scored 300 or more in 17 innings. Although their run-scoring woes are well-documented (they scored only two centuries in this World Test Championship, for instance), every member of the squad who has been questioned about it has cited difficult conditions and more difficult attacks as the reasons for their low numbers.

Assuming they are right, and those are the main explanations behind midpoints that drift under 40, Australia could be the spot to demonstrate it. The bounce will be real, and South Africa won’t have to worry about much sideways movement like they did in England. Although the home team’s attack will be just as difficult to beat as the bowlers they have already faced, they are similar to South Africa’s own pack in terms of pace and threat. In the event that a portion of the main six don’t pile up great numbers in this series, places should be in danger and a faculty shift could be in off. In a similar vein, the series is significant for the management of South Africa’s team because it reveals that interim head coach Malibongwe Maketa is interested in the permanent position.

Maketa’s challenge is not nearly as difficult as it appears. South Africa still has a chance of making the WTC final if they win one Test, so they can afford to lose the series. However, nobody thinks that way. A series victory is not unreasonable considering how dominant South Africa has been in Australia for the past decade and a half. In a similar vein, Australia will want to retake their home fortresses and regain their control over South Africa prior to 2008. Since January 2021, when they last lost a home Test, they have won six of their last seven matches.

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Form guide

Australia: WWLWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)

South Africa: LLWWW

In the spotlight

Marnus Labuschagne will be the talk of the series no matter how you pronounce his name, and this is not just because he is playing in Tests for the first time against his home country. With three hundreds, including a double-hundred, in his last four Test innings, Labuschagne is enjoying a form that few players can match. He is the fourth driving run-scorer in Tests this year, only 171 runs off the pioneer, Joe Root, and with four Test innings to play before 2022 is out, he might well wind up at the first spot on the list. He attributes his success to his insatiable desire to improve as a batter, and there is no better nation against which to demonstrate that than the one he used to call home.

Kagiso Rabada, the best athlete in South Africa, is the ideal opponent for Labuschagne. In spite of the fact that he had a poor T20 World Cup, Rabada is South Africa’s driving Test wicket-taker this year and, as Labuschagne, is fourth on the general averages. Additionally, there is something about Australia that just tends to bring out his best qualities. Rabada is a bowler for the large event and following a frustrating restricted overs year and a Test route in Britain. In 2022, this is your last chance to make an impactful statement. 

Team news

With Michael Neser out, Australian captain Pat Cummins will replace Steven Smith as captain after recovering from a quadriceps injury that kept him out of the second Test against West Indies. In place of Josh Hazlewood, Scott Boland continues to play.

Australia 

1 David Warner, 2 Usman Khawaja, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Travis Head, 6 Cameron Green, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Pat Cummins (capt), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Scott Boland

After missing the last Test and the entire England tour, Rassie van der Dussen and Temba Bavuma returned to the batting lineup. In light of Keegan Petersen’s absence from the tour due to a torn hamstring, their experience will be beneficial. That results in a void at No. 5, which is likely to be filled by either Theunis de Bruyn or Khaya Zondo, with Heinrich Klaasen remaining in reserve. Although Marco Jansen, a bowling all-rounder, is ranked No. 1, South Africa has considered seven specialist batters. Seventh, they are able to field four additional bowlers: three frontline quicks and only one spinner, Keshav Maharaj.

South Africa (possible)

1 Dean Elgar (capt), 2 Sarel Erwee, 3 Rassie van der Dussen, 4 Temba Bavuma, 5 Khaya Zondo/Theunis de Bruyn, 6 Kyle Verreynne (wk), 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Keshav Maharaj, 9 Kagiso Rabada, 10 Anrich Nortje, 11 Lungi Ngidi

Pitch and conditions

The Gabba is one of the fastest Test surfaces, so it should have a lot of bite for fast bowlers, and it’s not afraid to show its true colors. 24 hours after the toss, it was still very green, but there was still a chance that some of it could be cut off. Elgar stated, “The color green doesn’t scare us.” But it can also be misleading. When South Africa last played here, they were sucked into the mythology and started out fast, but the pitch was so quiet that even Hashim Amla played a few overs. That was a decade ago, and it rained all day on the second day. With sunny weather predicted throughout the Test, none of that is anticipated this time.

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Stats

• South Africa have won their last three series in Australia in 2008, 2012 and 2016.
• Between them, South Africa’s squad has 1675 first-class caps, more than Australia’s 1533. However, South Africa only boast 329 Test caps compared with Australia’s 577.
• Mitchell Starc needs four wickets for 300 in Tests; Usman Khawaja needs 47 runs for 4000
• Australia have four batters – Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head and Usman Khawaja – and two bowlers – Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc – in the top ten on the ICC’s Test rankings. South Africa have no batters and only one bowler: Kagiso Rabada. Their highest-ranked batter is Dean Elgar, at No.16.