India's qualification scenarios for the 2025 ICC WTC final

After the hosts India suffered a shocking whitewash against New Zealand in the three-match Test series, the question is rising: Can India reach the final of the ongoing ICC World Test Championship edition?  

India strongly held the top position in the ongoing 2023-2025 ICC World Test Championship percentage of points won (PCT) table before the beginning of the three-match home Test series against New Zealand. While one Test victory of the series would be enough for India to retain their top place in the table, the 3-0 shocking home Test series defeat slipped them to second place. 

The defending champions Australia are now leading the ongoing WTC PCT with 62.50%. Meanwhile, the first two WTC editions runners-up India are in second place in the same table with 58.33%. Every team wants to finish in the top two places to qualify for the ongoing edition final. 

SEE ALSO: India slip in WTC points table after shocking home whitewash

Sri Lanka (PCT 55.56%), New Zealand (PCT 54.55%), and South Africa (PCT 54.17%) also have great chances to qualify for the upcoming WTC final. Although England (PCT 40.79%) and Pakistan (PCT 33.33%) are also officially available for the WTC final qualification, they majorly have to depend on the other series results too. Bangladesh (PCT 27.50%) and West Indies (PCT 18.52%) have no more chance to qualify for the final despite still having Test series in this cycle. 

Latest 2023-2025 ICC World Test Championship

Here, we are looking at how India can qualify for the 2025 ICC World Test Championship final. So, we will see how India can finish in the top two positions in the ongoing WTC PTC table.  

India now have only one Test series left. India will now tour Australia to play the much-awaited Border-Gavaskar Trophy. In this upcoming series, Australia will host a five-match Test series. Although India won the historic Test series in their last two tours in Australia, the upcoming tour is going to be tougher, and the recent home Test series results just confirmed this belief. 

Teams with the highest possible PCT available in the 2023-2025 ICC World Test Championship (If each team can win all their remaining matches)

India qualifying for the final without depending other results

Starting with the simple and easy theory, India will ensure their place in the 2025 ICC World Test Championship final by securing at least a 4-0 series victory in Australia. It means India can’t lose a game in Australia to end this cycle with 65+ PCT (65.29%). If India secure 65 PCT, they can secure their position in the top two without depending on any other Test match results. 

By winning the away Test series with a 0-5 margin, India will achieve their maximum PCT available at 69.30%. However, both equations are very hard to achieve for India. 

• India winning the Test series by 0-5: 69.30 PCT

• India winning the Test series by 0-4: 65.79 PCT
  

If 60 PCT is enough for India

Seven Test series are yet to begin, and 18 Test matches will be played. So, there are high chance of seeing continuous changes in the ongoing WTC PCT. Considering other Test series battles in tight angles, if India need to secure at least 60 PCT, they need to win at least three Tests and also can’t defeat more than one Test in the upcoming Australia tour. 

• India winning the Test series by 1-4: 64.04 PCT

• India winning the Test series by 0-3: 62.28 PCT

• India winning the Test series by 1-3: 60.53 PCT

If 55 PCT enough for India

If the scene becomes more volatile, India can finish in the top two even with the 55 PCT. To secure this achievement, they can’t lose the series. While any kind of remaining Test series win will be enough for India to secure the 55+ PCT, they can also achieve it with a 2-2 series draw. 

• India winning the Test series by 2-3: 58.77 PCT

• India winning the Test series by 0-2: 58.77 PCT

• India winning the Test series by 1-2: 57.02 PCT

• India winning the Test series by 0-1: 55.26 PCT

• India drew the Test series by 2-2: 55.26 PCT

If lower than 55 PCT enough for India

With more favourable results in other series, India can reach the final of the ongoing WTC cycle with 53.51 PCT. It can be achieved with a 1-1 draw result or a 3-2 margin series defeat. 

India’s final possible PCTs after the end of the five-match Test series in Australia