Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) fans are hoping that rain stays away from the M Chinnaswamy Stadium on Saturday. RCB is set to host five-time champions Chennai Super Kings (CSK) in a must-win game to secure a spot in the IPL 2024 playoffs.

Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) have secured the top spot, while Rajasthan Royals and Sunrisers Hyderabad have confirmed their places in the top four. Lucknow Super Giants’ (LSG) hopes are hanging by a thread as they face Mumbai Indians in their final match. Delhi Capitals (DC) are also in a similar situation. Therefore, the RCB vs CSK match on May 18 will be crucial in deciding the fourth playoff team.

Weather concerns

The weather forecast for Saturday is worrisome for RCB. The match, scheduled to start at 7:30 pm, has a forecast of ‘cloudy with a thunderstorm in parts of the area’. There is a ‘100% cloud cover’ and an expected ‘7.2 mm’ of rain. The temperature after sunset is predicted to be in the early 20s, which could impact the game significantly.

Net run-rate and points to check

Seventh-place LSG has a negative net run-rate (NRR) of -0.787, which diminishes their playoff chances despite having the same number of points (12) as RCB. Delhi Capitals, with 14 points, have a negative NRR of -0.377, leaving them with slim hopes.

RCB has a positive NRR of +0.387, putting them in a better position. However, CSK, with 14 points and the best NRR among the contenders at +0.528, are also well-placed. RCB will need to calculate the exact margins of victory required to surpass CSK’s NRR.

Qualification scenarios for RCB

If RCB bat first and set a target of 200 for CSK, they need to win by at least 18 runs to improve their NRR above CSK’s and secure a playoff spot. If RCB are chasing a target of 201 or more, they need to win with a minimum of 11 balls to spare to leapfrog CSK.

Qualification scenarios for CSK

For CSK, the equation is simple: win and they are through to the playoffs. Given their two-point advantage over RCB’s 12 points, even a narrow defeat could be sufficient if their NRR remains superior. In case of a washout or no-result, both teams will receive one point each, which will be enough for CSK to qualify.

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The RCB vs CSK match is a virtual knockout in the race for the IPL 2024 playoffs. The weather forecast adds an element of uncertainty, making the situation even more tense for the teams and fans. As both teams prepare for this crucial clash, all eyes will be on the skies and the calculations to determine the final playoff spot.