After losing the Melbourne Test, India are in danger of losing their hope for qualification for the ICC World Test Championship Final for the ongoing cycle (2023-2025). The Melbourne Test defeat has raised the question of whether India have any more chance to reach the WTC Final for the third straight time.

If India drew the Melbourne Test, they could have a better chance to qualify for the upcoming WTC Final. As they suffered a defeat, India are in a tricky situation for the WTC Final qualification chance.

Australia are leading the five-match Test series Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25 by 2-1 with the last Test yet to be played. Sydney will host the last Test of the series, starting on December 3. It will be the must-win game for India to only level the Test series by 2-2. 

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WTC Final Qualification: Sydney Test will be the must-win game for India

Forget about losing the Sydney Test, India will be straight out of the WTC Final contention if they even draw the last Test of the series. In this case, India will have only 51.75 percentage points.

So, India must have to win the Sydney Test to only stay in the WTC Final contention. By winning the series decider, India will earn 55.26 percentage points. 

South Africa qualify for the WTC Final

By winning the thrilling home Test series opener against Pakistan, South Africa have already confirmed their place in the upcoming WTC Final. They already have 66.67 percentage points and can’t lose their place in the WTC Final even after losing the second or last Test of the series. 

Only Sydney Test draw result can be helpful for Sri Lanka

On the other hand, Sri Lanka are hoping for only a draw result in the Sydney Test, as the Lankans can only stay in contention for the WTC Final with that result. After the Sydney Test draw result, which will make India’s points percentage 51.75, Sri Lanka must have to win both of the two-match home Test series against Australia. Only these combined results will help Sri Lanka reach their maiden WTC Final, as Sri Lanka (53.85) will be slightly ahead of Australia (53.51) to grab second place in the percentage points table.

Sydney Test win will be enough for the defending champions Australia

In the meantime, a Sydney Test victory will be enough for the baggy greens to advance to the WTC Final, even if they then lose a 2-0 away Test series against Sri Lanka. In the case of a draw result in the Sydney Test, India will be out, and Sri Lanka will remain in the contest for the WTC Final, but the defending champions Australia will secure their place for their second consecutive WTC Final with only one draw result in the two-match Test series against the hosts Sri Lanka. 

India's only WTC Final qualification: Australia can't win a Test in Sri Lanka after losing Sydney Test

If Australia lose the Sydney Test, they need to win at least one Test in Sri Lanka. In Australia’s Sydney Test defeat scenario, if they lose both Tests or draw both Tests or lose a Test and draw the other Test in Sri Lanka, only India will advance to the WTC Final for the straight third time.

WTC Final

Lord's will host the 2023-2025 ICC World Test Championship Final from June 11, 2025.