The Kane Williamson-led New Zealand team finds themselves in a precarious position in the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 after consecutive defeats. Their latest loss to the West Indies has pushed them to the brink of elimination, making their path to the Super 8 stage a daunting task.

How did New Zealand get here?

New Zealand’s journey in the World Cup has been fraught with challenges. After an 84-run defeat against Afghanistan, they suffered a narrow 13-run loss to the West Indies in their second Group C encounter at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba, Trinidad. This defeat allowed the West Indies to secure their place in the Super 8, while leaving New Zealand with a slim chance of advancing.

West Indies lead Group C with six points from three games. Afghanistan, with two wins and an impressive net run rate (NRR) of +5.225, are positioned second. They are expected to secure their spot in the Super 8 with a victory over Papua New Guinea (PNG). New Zealand, languishing at the bottom with zero points and an NRR of -2.42, face an uphill battle to qualify.

Key performances and challenges

Sherfane Rutherford’s unbeaten 68 off 39 balls was instrumental in West Indies’ victory over New Zealand, securing a total of 149. In response, the Kiwis managed only 136. This loss highlighted the challenges New Zealand face, both in terms of batting and overall team performance.

New Zealand in tricky situation

For New Zealand to qualify for the Super 8, several factors must work in their favor. New Zealand’s fate is heavily tied to Afghanistan’s performance. Afghanistan must lose both of their remaining matches against PNG and West Indies. While a loss to West Indies seems plausible, Afghanistan losing to PNG is less likely. If Afghanistan wins either game or if the PNG match is rained out, New Zealand’s chances are effectively over.

New Zealand must win their remaining matches against Uganda and PNG by significant margins. The exact margins will depend on how badly Afghanistan loses their matches (if they lose at all). New Zealand need to boost their NRR substantially to overtake Afghanistan if they end up tied on points.

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Can New Zealand still reach the super 8?

While New Zealand are not mathematically out of contention, their chances of qualifying for the Super 8 are slim. They need a combination of favorable results in other matches and dominant performances in their own remaining games. As it stands, a miracle is required for the Black Caps to avoid an early exit from the T20 World Cup 2024.