Rajasthan Royals' (RR) hopes of qualifying for the playoffs are now hanging by a thread, after suffering their fifth successive loss - and a seventh overall - in the IPL 2025 season. On Thursday, April 24, they lost a closely fought encounter to Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) at the M Chinnaswamy. Chasing a tough target of 206 runs, RR faltered at the final hurdle, finishing at 194/9 with just 18 runs needed at the cost of 5 wickets in the last two overs.

RCB's innings was anchored by some explosive batting by Virat Kohli and Devdutt Padikkal. After RR captain Riyan Parag chose to bowl first, Kohli scored 70 from 42 balls, and Padikkal scored 50 runs from 27 balls. Their blistering innings allowed Tim David (23) and Jitesh Sharma (20*) to add some more runs at the end and push the total over 200. In reply, Yashasvi Jaiswal gave RR the ideal start with a blistering 49 runs off just 19 balls. Vaibhav Suryavanshi, Nitish Rana, and Riyan Parag really couldn't build on their starts, and Dhruv Jurel tried to consolidate the innings with 47 runs, but it was a struggle as Jaiswal was the only one batting freely. Josh Hazlewood bowled a phenomenal penultimate over where he took two wickets for just a single run to finish his four overs with figures of 4/33. Yash Dayal kept his cool for the final over to clinch RCB's victory by 11 runs.

See Also: WATCH: Jitesh Sharma’s game changing review breaks Rajasthan Royals’ hearts in final overs!

Qualification Requirement

After the IPL adopted a 10-team format in 2022, a few clear trends for qualification have emerged: 

• 16 points (8 wins): In terms of getting to the playoffs, 16 points has, on average, proven to be a safety net for qualification, as nearly every team that reaches this level is guaranteed a chance at qualifying.  
• 14 points (7 wins):  In terms of qualification, teams with 14 points have an outside chance of competing for the top four; however, the outcome is left solely to their Net Run Rate (NRR), and probably other results (RCB in IPL 2024).  
• 12 points (6 wins): Qualification with just 12 points is extremely rare. In terms of the IPL, it has only happened once when Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) quietly scraped into the playoffs in 2019.

Remaining matches for RR

The Rajasthan Royals have five matches remaining in their IPL 2025 campaign. They will face the Gujarat Titans in Jaipur on April 28 at 7:30 pm, followed by a clash against Mumbai Indians at the same venue on May 1, also at 7:30 pm. Their next fixture is against Kolkata Knight Riders in Kolkata on May 4 at 3:30 pm. They will then travel to Chennai to take on Chennai Super Kings on May 12 at 7:30 pm, before concluding their league stage with a home game against Punjab Kings in Jaipur on May 16 at 7:30 pm.

Qualification Scenarios for RR

Scenario 1: RR wins  all the remaining five matches

If Rajasthan Royals win all five of their remaining matches, they will finish the league stage with 7 wins and 14 total points (2 currently + 5 = 7; 4 currently + 10 = 14). Although 14 points gives them a chance to qualify for the playoffs, it does not guarantee qualification. The qualification will ultimately depend on other matches being played and on their Net Run Rate (NRR). It is therefore important to win by significant margins, as it will help boost their NRR to try and qualify in one of the top spots.  

Scenario 2: RR wins 4 out of the remaining five matches 

If Rajasthan Royals end up winning 4 of their last 5 matches, they will finish on 6 wins and 12 points. The current case scenario shows that there are currently six teams that have ten or more points. Therefore, 12 points will not qualify the Rajasthan Royals for the playoffs. In this case, the Rajasthan Royals will be officially out of playoff contention. Although they can still help the playoff chase by continuing to defeat teams in better positions, and affect the goals of playoff aspirants.