WTC qualification scenarios for top four teams teams

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 05:36:50 GMT

The race to the 2024-25 World Test Championship (WTC) final is heating up with every passing Test match. Teams such as South Africa and Australia have made some recent gains and have bolstered their chances for a potential spot in the final. While on the other hand, teams like India and Sri Lanka have been dented substantially following their recent defeats despite being in a promising position.

However, with at least 10 more Test matches to go in this ongoing WTC cycle, the top four teams are still very much in contention with no team currently assured of a spot in the top two just yet. But following a convincing 2-0 series win by South Africa and a 0-2 drubbing for the Black Caps at home, there have been some intriguing changes in the standings of several teams in the WTC points table.

Let's find out how the teams are stacked up and what they are required to do to finish in the top two.

Rankings in the WTC Points table

South Africa, Australia, India, and Sri Lanka are the top four teams in the ongoing WTC table. All of them have a possibility of making it to the top two but at present, it is South Africa that is dominating the charts. India had previously acquired the top spot by beating Australia by 295 runs in the Perth Test. But their number one position was immediately challenged and they slipped to the second position following their 10-wicket loss against Australia in Adelaide. But South Africa, on the back of a crushing 2-0 series weep against Sri Lanka at home have surpassed the two and surged to the top of the WTC points table.

Here is the rundown of the top four teams and where they stand:

South Africa

South Africa's 2-0 series victory over Sri Lanka has propelled them to the leading position in the World Test Championship standings. To guarantee a spot in the final, they must win at least one of the two Test matches against Pakistan in the upcoming two-match home series scheduled to commence later this month. A split result of 1-1 would result in a percentage of 61.11%, with only one of either India or Australia capable of surpassing them.

Australia

Australia requires two victories in their three remaining Test matches against India to guarantee a spot in the final. Should they achieve a 3-2 series victory, they could still lose both Tests in Sri Lanka and conclude with a percentage of 55.26, surpassing India's 53.51 and Sri Lanka's 53.85. This outcome would ensure they secure at least second place, trailing only South Africa.

India

India's WTC aspirations have taken a bit of a backseat ever so slightly following their defeat in the pink-ball Test. To secure a position in the final, India must achieve two victories and one draw in their remaining three Test matches in Australia. This outcome would elevate their percentage to 60.53%, guaranteeing them at least the second position, trailing only South Africa. Even if Australia were to win 2-0 against Sri Lanka, their maximum percentage would only reach 57.02%.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka commenced their tour to South Africa on a very assuring note but all their high ambitions have come down crashing as they suffered a horrendous Test series loss in a two-match series. They are still mathematically not out of the race yet but their fate now hangs on the outcome of other teams and how they fare in their forthcoming fixtures. Should Sri Lanka secure victories in both Tests against Australia, their final score would be 53.85. This outcome would place them in a precarious position, reliant on the results of other matches. South Africa, along with either India or Australia, could surpass this score; India would require one win and one draw, whereas Australia would need to achieve two wins. For both India and South Africa to remain below 53.85, Australia must win the series 2-1, accompanied by two draws.

New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and West Indies are all but out of the WTC final race. Pakistan may still remotely have a chance of making it to the top should they manage to win the two upcoming Tests against South Africa provided that the home side suffers points deduction for slow overrate penalties. If that were the case, South Africa's overall PCT could drop below Pakistan which can help the Men in Green to surge forward and make it to the top two. But as per expert opinion, such an occurrence remains a distant possibility.