Sri Lanka, the Asian champion, is competing with defending champion Australia and 2010 champion England for the second spot in Super 12 Group 1’s race to the T20 World Cup 2022 semi-finals. The island nation defeated Afghanistan by six wickets to claim third place in the group with four points and an outside chance of securing second place.

The Dasun Shanaka-led team overcame England to take the third spot thanks to their victory over Afghanistan. However, in order for the island nation to maintain a chance of qualifying for the semi-finals, they will need to defeat England in their final Super 12 match.

However, even that won’t be sufficient. Afghanistan will likely upset the defending champions, Australia, and Ireland will likely beat New Zealand to advance to the semi finals.

Who’s in the driving seat to reach the semi-finals?

From their four matches, New Zealand won three in Group 1, and the margins of their 89-run victory over Australia and 65-run victory over Sri Lanka gave them a significant advantage in the Net Run Rate category as well. However, the Kiwis’ Tuesday defeat by 20 runs to England served as a wake-up call.

The T20 World Cup Standings

A Net RR of +3.850 is almost as good as an extra point, barring a crushing defeat of their own in the remaining matches.

The washout and shared points against Afghanistan may still work against the Kiwis, but the Black Caps still have a significant advantage in the qualification race due to the rest of the group taking points from each other.

New Zealand already has one foot in the semi-finals and can effectively guarantee that with a win against England next time out, so it is highly unlikely that any of the five other teams in the group will be able to leapfrog them in the final two matches.

It appears that run rate will determine at least one of the top two, with England following New Zealand.

Can Australia still defend their title?

Both in terms of the outcome and its effect on NRR, Australia’s crushing loss to New Zealand in the group’s opening match had placed them in a perilous position.

The tournament’s hosts were aware that they couldn’t afford to lose another game. Although a team’s chances of qualifying for the Super 12 stage are not mathematically eliminated if they lose two games, qualifying with just three wins will likely require a lot of luck.

However, the win over Sri Lanka on Tuesday in Perth, particularly Marcus Stoinis’s late flurry of runs, which saw them chase down the target with more than three overs remaining and cut some of that NRR deficit, has increased the chances of a successful title defence.

🔹 Advantage England after crucial win
🔹 Net Run Rate could decide it
🔹 Sri Lanka not yet out of the running

Everything you need to know about the qualification permutations in Group 1 of the #T20WorldCup 👇https://t.co/AnwEVmqxAZ

— T20 World Cup (@T20WorldCup) November 1, 2022

Australia took advantage of their opportunity to control their own destiny on Monday by defeating Ireland after England’s defeat to Ireland and the washout between the English and Australians in Melbourne.

Australia is now in the top two thanks to their 42-run victory, which puts them five points ahead of New Zealand and England on Tuesday morning. Australia will only need to beat Afghanistan to qualify if England loses that match.

Should England beat New Zealand then Net RR could well be a factor.

England return strongly to the fold

It’s possible that momentum has just turned in England’s favor.Jos Buttler’s team was in trouble in Group 1 after a rain-related loss to Ireland and a washout against Australia.

However, their strong return to the fold has been aided by their victory over New Zealand.Their final Super 12 Group 1 match will be against Sri Lanka, and a victory there could land them in the semifinals.

Should New Zealand win they will be through to the semi-finals.

After England’s win over New Zealand on Tuesday, the entire group is open.The result brought them level with New Zealand on five points and set up a final round of games in which five of the six teams could still reach the top two, despite the fact that Net RR made it extremely difficult for at least one of those teams.

This outcome will have far-reaching repercussions, and everyone will be watching The Gabba.

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Remaining Group 1 Fixtures

• Friday 04 November: Ireland v New Zealand, Adelaide Oval
• Friday 04 November: Australia v Afghanistan, Adelaide Oval
• Saturday 05 November: Sri Lanka v England, SCG, Sydney