T20 WC 2024: Pre-match Analysis: Pakistan's conundrum heightens drama for New York match against India - Cricket Winner

The rapid construction of an international cricket stadium on park land in record time has led to significant issues, particularly with the quality of the drop-in pitches. These pitches, grown in Florida and then transported to New York, have not met the expected standards, resulting in suboptimal playing conditions. This was evident when South Africa bowled out Sri Lanka for a mere 77 runs on pitch No. 1, and although they managed to chase the target, they faced considerable challenges due to the pitch conditions.

The problems were further highlighted two days later during a match between India and Ireland on pitch No. 4. In this game, Ireland was dismissed for 96, with players like Harry Tector, Rohit Sharma, and Rishabh Pant suffering body blows from the unpredictable bounce. Additionally, exaggerated seam movement and a slow outfield made scoring runs exceedingly difficult. The widespread criticism from these matches prompted the ICC to acknowledge the issues with the pitches and commit to finding a solution to improve the playing conditions.

On Friday, Canada became the first team to score over 100 runs in New York, posting a total of 137 against Ireland on pitch No. 4, and successfully defended it by a margin of 12 runs. The following day, South Africa faced the Netherlands on a fresh surface, pitch No. 2. The Netherlands managed to score only 103 for 9, but South Africa encountered difficulties as well, finding themselves at 12 for 4 before eventually securing a four-wicket victory. Despite the low scores, South African player David Miller noted that pitch No. 2 played better than pitch No. 1.

With India and Pakistan scheduled to play, they are likely to compete on either pitch No. 4 or pitch No. 2. So far, fast bowlers have dominated the matches in New York. Pakistan’s formidable lineup includes Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Mohammad Amir, and Haris Rauf, while India’s attack features Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, Arshdeep Singh, and Hardik Pandya. Given the challenging conditions, batters from both teams could face a tough battle unless the pitch conditions improve significantly.

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The New York Effect: Decoding the challenge of the pitch via aOPI

🏏 The New York Effect: Decoding the challenge of the pitch via Adjusted On-pitch Impact (aOPI)#cricket #PakvsInd #t20worldcup pic.twitter.com/lA26p8qFvx

— Saiprasad Kagne (@KEVLAR2601) June 9, 2024

Adjusted On-pitch Impact (aOPI) is a cricket analytics metric that assesses the controlled shots played by batters on specific pitch zones. It provides a percentage value for each pitch zone, indicating the batters’ level of control over their shots in that area. This metric helps quantify a batter’s ability to execute shots effectively across different parts of the pitch, offering valuable insights into their overall batting performance.

In the context of the New York pitch, a negative aOPI value of -23.5% at the outside off stump and short pitch area indicates that batters have significantly less control over their shots in that particular zone. This suggests that this area poses a considerable challenge for batters, likely due to unpredictable bounce, pace, or movement off the pitch in that region. Such conditions make it difficult for batters to play effective shots, increasing the likelihood of mistimed hits and potential dismissals.

Conversely, with an aOPI of +23.7% at the stumps and fuller area on the New York pitch, it suggests that this zone is the most favorable for batters. They demonstrate greater control over their shots in this region, which indicates that it is an ideal area for them to play their strokes effectively and score runs with confidence. This stark contrast in aOPI values between different pitch zones highlights the significant impact of pitch conditions on batting performance in New York.

In addition, with an aOPI of +6.24% at the stumps and short area on the New York pitch, it suggests that this zone is also favorable for batters, though not as much as the fuller area. Batters maintain a decent level of control over their shots in this region, indicating that it is another viable area for them to play their strokes effectively. This positive aOPI value highlights that while the stumps and short area are more challenging than the fuller length, batters can still find opportunities to score runs with a reasonable degree of confidence and control.

In the first four T20 World Cup matches played in New York, fast bowlers have taken a staggering 45 wickets, compared to just 10 by spinners. Teams have bowled 115.2 overs of pace and only 27.2 overs of spin at this venue, underscoring the dominance of fast bowlers on these pitches. This trend indicates that the New York pitches have been more conducive to pace, providing seam and bounce that challenge batters.

Babar Azam’s performance against India has varied significantly. He scored a match-winning 68 off 52 balls against India in Dubai during the 2021 T20 World Cup but was dismissed for a golden duck by Arshdeep Singh in Melbourne in 2022. Notably, Babar has not been dismissed by Jasprit Bumrah (13 off 10 balls) or Ravindra Jadeja (19 off 14 balls) and has not yet faced Mohammed Siraj or Hardik Pandya in T20Is.

Virat Kohli, on the other hand, has faced a total of 113 balls in T20Is from Naseem Shah, Mohammad Amir, Haris Rauf, and Shadab Khan without being dismissed. Although he has fallen once in 22 deliveries to Shaheen Afridi, he maintains an impressive strike rate of 154 against him. Kohli’s last four T20I scores against Pakistan, since 2021, are 82*, 60, 35, and 57, highlighting his consistent performance against Pakistan’s bowling attack.